Prediction
Overview
Predictions is Aster's prediction market product, allowing users to trade on the outcome of future events. Each event resolves within a defined time window and contains multiple independent markets, where every market represents a separate session with its own order book, settlement time, and trading activity.
Users trade prediction shares priced between 0.0001 and 0.9999 USDT. These prices represent the market-implied probability of an outcome occurring.
Example:
Up/Yes price = 0.54
Implied probability = 54%
At settlement:
Settlement fee of 0.05% applies to winning shares only. No fee is charged on losing shares.
Price markets settle using the underlying spot index price
Event markets settle based on the official result of the event
How It Works
Settlement Rules — Price Markets
Each market has a target price determined by the index price snapshot taken at market open.
At settlement:
If the settlement index price ≥ target price, Up wins
If the settlement index price < target price, Down wins
Settlement Price refers to the TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) derived from the underlying asset's spot index price over a designated period prior to the close of each round's time window, which is compared against the Start Price to determine the settlement outcome.
Settlement Rules — Event Markets
Event markets settle directly to Yes or No based on the official outcome of the event.
Share Prices & Probability
Prediction shares trade between 0.0001 and 0.9999 USDT.
The share price represents the market-implied probability for that outcome.
Example:
Share price = 0.5397
Implied probability ≈ 54%
Market Lifecycle
Each prediction market — both price and event — goes through several stages:
Status
Description
Upcoming
Market window hasn't started yet. Advance trading is available.
Live
Trading is active
Settling / Closed
New orders are blocked while settlement is processing
Ended
Market fully settled
Orders can only be placed when the market status is Upcoming or Live.
Order Types
Predictions currently supports:
Market Orders
Limit Orders
Market orders are executed as IOC (Immediate-Or-Cancel) limit orders with slippage protection.
This means:
Orders may partially fill if liquidity is insufficient
Any unfilled portion is automatically canceled
Market orders will never remain resting on the order book
Shared Liquidity Model
Markets with two outcomes (such as Yes and No markets) share liquidity through an order book mirroring system.
The No order book is derived from the Yes book using:
No Price = 1 − Yes Price
This means users are effectively viewing two sides of the same liquidity pool.
Switching between Yes and No changes the displayed view, but liquidity remains shared internally.
Charts
Price markets support three chart views.
Chart Type
Description
Probability Chart
Implied probability movement based on share trades
Price Chart
Underlying index price as a line, with the target price marked
Candle Chart
Underlying index price in candlestick format
Charts stop updating once the market reaches the Ended state.
Note: Event markets support the Probability Chart only.
Fees
Fees may apply during:
Opening trades
Closing trades
Settlement (Settlement fee is 0.05%, only on winning shares)
0% fee for both taker and maker at launch. Settlement fee is 0.05%, only on winning shares.
Prediction Holdings & History
Prediction Holdings
Users can view their prediction holdings under:
Predictions → Open
Prediction holdings remain visible until positions are closed or the market settles.
Realized PnL & Fees
Users can view realized PnL and fee history under:
Predictions → Settled
The page includes:
Realized PnL (from closing or settlement)
Trading fees
Settlement fees
All amounts are displayed in USDT.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is Aster Predictions?
Predictions is Aster's prediction market product. You trade shares representing possible outcomes of future events. Each share is priced between $0.0001 and $0.9999, reflecting the market's view of the probability. When the event resolves, winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0.
Each event contains multiple independent markets, each with its own time window and settlement.
2. How is Up/Yes or Down/No decided?
For price markets, settlement compares the opening target price with the settlement-time index price.
If settlement price ≥ target price → Up wins
If settlement price < target price → Down wins
For event markets, settlement follows the official result of the event.
3. What price is used for settlement?
For price markets, settlement uses the underlying spot index price. For event markets, settlement is based on the official event outcome.
Winning shares pay $1. Losing shares pay $0.
4. What does the prediction share price mean?
The share price represents the market-implied probability of an outcome occurring.
Example:
Price = 0.54
Implied probability ≈ 54%
5. When can I place orders?
Orders can only be placed while the market status is:
Upcoming
Live
Orders are blocked once the market enters Settling or Ended status.
6. Why can't I sell?
Selling requires an existing position. Users cannot sell prediction shares they do not hold.
7. Why was my market order only partially filled?
Market orders use IOC execution with slippage protection.
If sufficient liquidity is unavailable within the allowed price range, only part of the order may execute while the remaining quantity is canceled.
8. Why does the order book change when switching between Up and Down?
Yes and No share liquidity through order book mirroring. The displayed prices are transformed using:
No Price = 1 − Yes Price
This creates two views of the same liquidity pool.
9. What do the chart views mean?
Probability Chart: implied probability movement
Price Chart (price markets only): underlying index price and target price
Candle Chart (price markets only): candlestick data of the underlying index
10. Where can I view my prediction positions?
Prediction holdings are shown under Predictions → Open. They appear separately from perpetual futures positions.
11. Where can I view realized PnL and fees?
Go to: Predictions → Settled
This page displays realized PnL, trading fees, and settlement fees in USDT.
12. Why did I receive less USDT than expected after selling?
Trading fees are deducted from the gross proceeds. The final credited amount equals trade value minus trading fees.
13. Do losing positions pay settlement fees?
No. Settlement fees are deducted only from winning share payouts.
14. Why did the market disappear?
Possible reasons include:
The market has already ended
The market was delisted by the platform
The selected time-window session expired
Users can still review settled markets through history pages.
15. Why does the displayed market time differ from my local time?
Market windows may display using ET or UTC depending on the interface. API timestamps use UTC.
16. Why does the chart look frozen?
Charts only update for Live markets. Once a market has ended, the chart is static. To see live data, switch to the current market window.
17. How do I report a settlement dispute?
Please provide:
Event or market name
Settlement time
Relevant order IDs or trade IDs
Expected vs actual settlement result
Open a ticket in our official Discord channel, and our support team can then escalate the case for settlement verification.
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